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Investing In The Markets With The Threat Of A Double Dip Recession

Update: This post was included in the Carnival of Money Stories and the September 12, 2010 edition of financial independence

Biography: Mr. Appleton is a member of the Matco investment committee and Matco’s Canadian Equity Group, which is responsible for managing the Canadian Equity, Small Cap, and Energy Portfolios. Prior to joining Matco, Mr. Appleton was with Computerized Portfolio Management Services Inc., one of North America’s leading independent equity research firms. He can be reached by email at: lappleton (at) matcofinancial (dot) ca or by telephone (toll free) at: 1.877.539.5743

Is the economy going to fall back into a recession or not? Not, at least not in the near term says Lee W. Appleton, portfolio manager at Matco Financial. Lee points to the steepness of the U.S. yield curve as having been a historically accurate precursor of recessions, with nine yield curve inversions followed by nine recessions. With the current yield curve being as steep as it’s been in 45 years, if one were to make an inference it would be that a recession is not on the horizon. However, Lee also notes that trends take time to develop and that the shape of the yield curve needs to be closely monitored for any signs of change.

Another point brought up by Lee is that current projections for expected earnings per share for the S&P/TSX Composite stand at 881 for 2011, a 21% increase year over year. Given a mandate to be invested in the markets today, Lee believes his “Canadian equity
picks are well-suited to the tug-of-war of worries and opportunities that is underway.”

2 of Lee’s top picks are Domtar Coporation (UFS: TSX) and Saputo Inc. (SAP:TSX). Read on below for why he likes them so much.

Is There Going To Be A Double Dip by Lee W. Appleton, CFA, Portfolio Manager at Matco Financial

For your information:

Matco Financial Inc. is a privately owned and independent Wealth Management Office. The material presented in the Matco Report is intended to provide information to Matco Financial clients, contacts, and affiliates. Readers should not act on this information without first consulting their investment advisor, tax advisor, financial planner, or lawyer. This communication does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation.

Management fees, commissions, and expenses may be associated with investment management services and mutual fund investments. Please read the applicable information such as the prospectus, which contains detailed investment information and is available from your advisor before investing. Most marketable securities such as mutual funds are not guaranteed or insured, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.

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